Actuarial (versus actual)

«Its use is often extended (...) to include the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method, (...). Actual is a new term (...) to refer to a technique with several designations in the statistical literature, including cumulative incidence and crude, unadjusted, absolute, or observable probability [1].»

«Actuarial analysis, (...), is used to describe and compare survival probabilities by allowing for partial survival times (censoring). (...) The actuarial event-free (survival) curve for a nonfatal event, such as structural valve deterioration (SVD) of porcine valves, estimates the event-free probability for a population in which death has been eliminated. This overestimates the percentage of valves that will actually fail, because many patients die before the valve fails [2].»

«Unlike cumulative incidence [actual estimates], the KM attempts to predict what the latent failure probability would be if death were eliminated. To do this, the KM method assumes that the risk of dying and the risk of failure are independent. But this assumption is not true for many cardiac applications in which the risks of failure and death are negatively correlated (ie, patients with a higher risk of dying have a lower risk of failure, and patients with a lower risk of death have a higher risk of failure, which is a condition called informative censoring) [3].»

«When used for nonfatal events such as SVD, actual analysis estimates the percentage of patients who will have SVD (or the probability that an individual patient will experience SVD). The KM (actuarial) method attempts to estimate the percentage of SVD that would occur if patients never died. Also, KM depends on the assumption that death and SVD are independent, which they are probably not [1].»

Bibliographic references:

[1] Grunkemeier GL, Wu Y. Actual versus actuarial event-free percentages. Ann Thorac Surg. 2001 Sep;72(3):677-8. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/s0003-4975(01)03059-4.

[2] Grunkemeier GL, Jamieson WR, Miller DC, Starr A. Actuarial versus actual risk of porcine structural valve deterioration. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 1994 Oct;108(4):709-18. PMID: 7934107. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-5223(94)70298-5.

[3] Grunkemeier GL, Jin R, Eijkemans MJ, Takkenberg JJ. Actual and actuarial probabilities of competing risks: apples and lemons. Ann Thorac Surg. 2007 May;83(5):1586-92. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.athoracsur.2006.11.044.